Economy Generator

Calculation Methodology

The Economy Generator derives economic indicators from 7 input parameters using correlations observed in real-world data from 19 reference countries. Each output is interpolated within its development level's range based on where the nation's GDP per capita falls, then modified by economic model, geography, resources, and stability. All formulas are visible in the source code.

Sector Breakdown

Base agriculture/industry/services percentages are interpolated from the development level range. Resource endowment applies additive adjustments (e.g., oil-rich: +8pp industry, -5pp agriculture). Economic model applies further shifts (e.g., command economies: +5pp industry). All percentages are normalized to 100% using the largest-remainder method. Sub-sectors (subsistence farming, mining, financial services, etc.) are derived from development-level-specific weight tables.

Primary sources: World Bank NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS (agriculture), NV.IND.TOTL.ZS (industry), NV.SRV.TOTL.ZS (services).

Labor Force

Labor participation rates range from ~60% (pre-industrial) to ~65% (post-industrial peak), reduced by conflict (conflict zones: 0.85x). Unemployment is interpolated from development level baselines, then modified multiplicatively by economic model (command: 0.5x) and stability (conflict zone: 1.8x). Employment is distributed across sectors proportionally to GDP sector shares.

Primary sources: World Bank SL.TLF.CACT.ZS (participation), SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS (unemployment), ILO ILOSTAT (employment by sector).

Government Finances

Tax revenue as % of GDP follows development level (pre-industrial: 5-12%, post-industrial: 28-50%), modified multiplicatively by economic model (free market: 0.85x, state-directed: 1.2x, command: 1.5x). Government spending ranges are wider than tax ranges to capture welfare state variation (modern: 25-55%, post-industrial: 35-55%). Spending is allocated across defense, healthcare, education, infrastructure, social, and other categories using model-specific profiles, with defense spending scaled by stability. Debt-to-GDP is interpolated from development level, then amplified by the deficit ratio (spending/revenue) with a 0.8x multiplier when the ratio exceeds 1.1, and further increased for resource-poor advanced economies (+15%) and conflict zones (+30%).

Primary sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (revenue, spending, debt), World Bank GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZS (tax revenue), GC.XPN.TOTL.GD.ZS (expenditure).

Trade Profile

Trade-to-GDP ratio starts from the development level typical, then is modified by geography (landlocked: 0.7x, island: 1.15x) and economic model openness (free market: 1.2x, command: 0.5x). Population size has a strong effect: nations under 5M get a 2.2x multiplier (small open economies like Switzerland, Norway), while nations over 500M get 0.45x (large continental economies like China, India are less trade-dependent relative to GDP). Export composition shifts from primary commodities toward manufactured goods and services as development increases.

Primary sources: World Bank NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS (trade % of GDP), CIA World Factbook (export composition, trade partners), UNCTAD (trade structure).

Income Distribution

Gini coefficient is interpolated from development level, then modified by economic model (free market: 1.15x, command: 0.75x), resource endowment (oil-rich: 1.12x), and stability (conflict zone: 1.15x). Poverty rate uses a dual model: for nations above $30K GDP/capita, relative poverty is calculated as a function of Gini (roughly 5% + 0.45 × (Gini - 22), capturing the 10-18% relative poverty typical of wealthy OECD nations); for nations below $15K, absolute poverty is interpolated from development level; between $15K-$30K, both measures are blended. Income quintile shares are derived from Gini using a simplified Lorenz curve.

Primary sources: World Bank SI.POV.GINI (Gini), SI.POV.DDAY (poverty headcount, $2.15/day), Eurostat ILC_LI02 (at-risk-of-poverty rate, 60% of median), OECD Poverty Rate (relative poverty, 50% of median).

Currency & Monetary

Inflation rates are interpolated from development level (pre-industrial: 5-20%, post-industrial: 0.5-3%), then modified by stability (conflict zones: 2.5x), economic model (command: 0.8x, state-directed: 1.1x), and Dutch disease for oil-rich developing nations (1.15x). Interest rates equal inflation plus a real rate premium (0.5-6% depending on development and stability). Exchange rate stability is a categorical label based on the inflation-stability combination.

Primary sources: IMF WEO (inflation, monetary policy rates), World Bank FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG (consumer price inflation).

Growth Trajectory

Growth rates start from the development level typical (early industrial: ~5%, post-industrial: ~1.5%), with additive modifiers for resource endowment (+1pp for oil-rich), stability (-3.5pp for conflict zones), and economic model (+0.5pp for state-directed). A convergence effect adds up to +1.5pp for nations below $3K GDP/capita and subtracts up to -0.8pp above $80K. Growth forecasts are categorical labels.

Primary sources: IMF WEO (real GDP growth), World Bank NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG (GDP growth rate).

Infrastructure

Urbanization, internet penetration, electricity access, and road density are each interpolated from development level ranges. Internet baselines reflect mobile leapfrogging in developing nations (early industrial: 30-70%, not the lower figures typical of 2010). Geography modifies road density (landlocked: 1.1x) and internet (island: 1.05x). Port capacity is a categorical label from geography type.

Primary sources: World Bank IT.NET.USER.ZS (internet users), SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS (urbanization), EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS (electricity access), CIA World Factbook (road network, ports).

Human Development Index (HDI)

HDI is calculated using the UNDP geometric mean formula across three normalized indices: life expectancy ((LE − 20) / 65), education (0–1 scale interpolated from development level), and income (ln(GNI) normalized between $100 and $75,000). Component inputs—life expectancy, education index, literacy rate, and healthcare access—are each interpolated from development level ranges, then modified by stability (conflict zones: −10 years life expectancy, −25% healthcare), economic model (command: +5pp literacy, +0.05 education), and healthcare spending share. HDI categories follow UNDP thresholds: Very High (≥0.800), High (≥0.700), Medium (≥0.550), Low (<0.550).

Primary sources: UNDP Human Development Report (HDI formula, thresholds), World Bank SP.DYN.LE00.IN (life expectancy), SE.ADT.LITR.ZS (literacy rate).

Urban/Rural Split

Urban and rural GDP per capita are derived from the national average using a development-level-dependent urban/rural ratio (ranging from 1.8x for pre-industrial to 2.8x peak at industrial, declining to 2.0x for post-industrial as economies equalize). The derivation uses weighted-average algebra: given national GDP/capita = urban% × urbanGDP + rural% × ruralGDP, with urbanGDP = ratio × ruralGDP, rural GDP/capita is solved analytically. Urban vs. rural internet and electricity gaps are derived similarly, with urban areas receiving proportionally higher access and rural constrained not to exceed urban.

Primary sources: World Bank SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS (urbanization), World Bank Poverty & Equity (urban-rural income gaps).

Plausibility Badges

Each output section receives a three-tier badge: Plausible (within expected range), Strained (possible but unusual), or Implausible (contradicts observed patterns). Seven checks are run: sector sum = 100%, agriculture consistent with development level, trade-to-GDP within population-adjusted range, government spending vs. revenue ratio, unemployment within bounds, Gini consistent with economic model, and inflation consistent with stability. The overall badge is the worst status among all checks.

Key Assumptions

• Sub-sectors are derived deterministically from inputs, not user-configurable
• The model assumes a single national economy (no regional variation within the nation)
• Informal and black market economic activity is not modeled
• International sanctions and trade restrictions are not modeled
• Currency exchange rates are indicative only, not tradeable
• Growth trajectories assume continuation of current conditions
• Poverty in rich nations (GDP/capita > $30K) uses relative poverty (% below 60% of median), matching Eurostat/OECD definitions; poverty in poor nations uses absolute poverty (World Bank $2.15/day line)
• Debt-to-GDP is a point estimate based on structural factors, not a historical accumulation model — countries with decades of deficit spending (e.g., Japan) will be underestimated
• HDI uses GDP per capita as a proxy for GNI per capita (the UNDP formula uses GNI, but for fictional nations the distinction is immaterial)
• Urban/rural GDP split assumes a single urban sector and a single rural sector — intra-urban and intra-rural inequality is not modeled
• Overrides affect dependent indicators (e.g., inflation override recalculates interest rates and exchange stability) but do not cascade to all possible downstream effects
• Saved profiles store inputs and overrides only, not calculated outputs — reloading a profile recalculates from scratch, which may produce slightly different results if the calculation model has been updated
• Comparison mode uses a point-in-time snapshot; it does not track historical changes

Data Sources

All country preset "actual" values are from 2023-2024 data. Development level parameter ranges were calibrated against these 19 reference countries. Specific sources:

• World Bank Open Data — GDP, GDP per capita, sector breakdown (value added), labor participation, unemployment, Gini coefficient, poverty headcount, urbanization, internet penetration, electricity access, tax revenue, government expenditure
• IMF World Economic Outlook (Oct 2024) — Inflation, real GDP growth, general government revenue and expenditure (% of GDP), gross debt (% of GDP)
• CIA World Factbook — Trade-to-GDP ratios, export composition (primary/manufactured/services), electricity access, road and port infrastructure, labor force composition
• SIPRI Military Expenditure Database — Defense spending as % of GDP (cross-referenced with companion Military Simulator tool)
• Eurostat — European relative poverty rates (at-risk-of-poverty, 60% of median income), used for EU country preset actuals
• OECD Data — Tax-to-GDP ratios, government spending composition, Gini coefficients, relative poverty rates for OECD members
• ILO ILOSTAT — Employment by sector, labor force participation, unemployment methodology
• UNCTAD — Trade structure, export composition by product category

Limitations

• The model uses correlations, not causal models — unusual real-world cases may not be well-represented
• Wartime economies (e.g., Ukraine) are inherently difficult to model with peacetime correlations
• Closed economies under sanctions (e.g., North Korea, Iran) deviate from market-based predictions
• Resource curse dynamics are simplified — real-world outcomes vary widely among oil-rich nations
• Historical economic structures (e.g., medieval guilds, colonial economies) are not directly modeled
• Debt-to-GDP is a structural estimate and will underestimate countries with long histories of deficit spending
• Poverty definitions differ between rich and poor countries; the blending zone ($15K-$30K GDP/capita) is an approximation

Version History

v0.9.0 (Feb 2026) — Tool Interconnect Sprint 2: Nation Profile JSON import to pre-fill inputs from other tools, EG↔FP URL contract documentation.

v0.8.0 (Feb 2026) — Tool Interconnect Sprint 1: Nation Profile JSON export for cross-tool interop, error toast styling (red + 4s), disabled export buttons when no results, 10 new contract tests (494 total).

v0.7.0 (Feb 2026) — Customizability update: nation & currency name inputs, 7 expanded override types with dependent recalculation, HDI card (UNDP geometric mean formula), urban/rural GDP split, saved profiles via localStorage (50-profile limit), side-by-side comparison mode (17 metrics with color-coded deltas), randomize button (log-uniform population, dev-level-constrained GDP). File split: data.js (884 lines) and calculate-indicators.js (354 lines) extracted. Test suite expanded from 380 to 480 tests.

v0.6.0 (Feb 2026) — Architecture overhaul: extracted pure calculateAll() function, EconGen namespace, smooth log-interpolated trade scaling, sub-sector normalization via largest-remainder, DOM safety (createElement/textContent), 150ms input debounce. Added sector overrides, JSON export/import, Fiscal Planner integration.

v0.5.0 (Feb 2026) — Plausibility overhaul: validation scorecard with pass counts, inline educational context with real-world preset comparisons, widened government balance thresholds, reverse GDP interpolation for agriculture/poverty/inflation, improved free-market and oil-rich calibration.

v0.4.1 (Feb 2026) — Fixed growth convergence effect where the >$80K GDP/capita penalty was unreachable. Added 25-scenario edge-case test suite.

v0.4.0 (Feb 2026) — Layout redesign: inputs in compact grid at top, output cards in 2-column grid below. Full export suite: MediaWiki table, CSV, shareable URL parameters, clipboard summary.

v0.3.0 (Feb 2026) — Validation messages displayed in output cards, mobile responsiveness improved, touch-friendly tooltips, toast notifications for copy actions.

v0.2.0 (Feb 2026) — Accuracy tuning: relative poverty model for rich countries, population-scaled trade ratios, reduced resource/model sector stacking, wider government finance ranges, boosted internet baselines, improved debt-to-GDP scaling. Methodology section expanded with hyperlinked per-metric source citations.

v0.1.0 (Feb 2026) — Initial release. 7 inputs, 8 output sections, 19 country presets, three-tier plausibility system.